The Direction of Real Estate in Jackson Hole:

By now unless you live in Tibet with Monks everyone has heard of the “Mortgage Crises” taking place in our country, the effects of which should not be down played. Real people are grappling with some serious problems out there. If you are trying to sell your home in New Jersey, you are finding that isn’t so easy. If the average person cannot sell in New Jersey, they cannot purchase in or around the Jackson Hole area. Leaving this point for a moment lets look at what is happening in real estate market of Jackson Hole. We can basically break this into two markets. The first market would be properties up to $1,999,000. The second market would comprise those properties at $2,000,000 forward.

Looking at the first market we see there has been an approximate drop in third quarter sales of 20%. There were 195 sales reported for 3rd quarter 2006 compared with 156 sales reported through September 26th of this quarter. This quarter historically has been strong due to the fact it is summer and 2.5 million visitors come through the valley. The ripple effect of tightening credit seems to have passed through our valley. How this will effect 4th quarter sales is yet to be seen, but will prove interesting none the less.

In reviewing the higher end market we see just the opposite occurring. Through September 26th of this quarter we have 17 sales reported compared to14 in 3rd quarter 2006. We are looking at a 20% increase. This market in Jackson Hole rarely uses lending institutions for their transactions. Now if we compute overall sales from say September ‘05 through September ‘06 which were at 787 sales for the period against the same period from September ’06 through September ‘07 we see a 13% increase. Sales for this period were 898. The average Days on Market did increase from 164 days for the period ending September ‘06 to 198 days for the period ending September ’07. Roughly another 20% increase. It appears from the numbers reviewed it is indeed taking longer to sell the homes in New Jersey or wherever USA, but the amount of people selling those homes to come here has increased again.

In analyzing the trend we could come to the conclusion that the “Mortgage Crises”, did show up on our radar screen. Is it going to show up as a forgettable blip or will it reflect back at us for a considerable time to come? I believe our answers lie somewhere in the uncharted waters of the 4th Quarter. We will be reviewing and analyzing the numbers as they come in during October. Look for our next contribution in about a month. If you have comments please send them to mark@jacksonholerr.com